METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF ENSURING THE STABILITY OF THE BANKING SYSTEM OF UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION

Анотація

Ensuring the financial stability of the banking system is a key prerequisite for macroeconomic resilience and sustainable economic development, particularly under conditions of military conflict and increasing European integration commitments. The article examines methodological approaches to ensuring the stability of the banking system of Ukraine under martial law and macroeconomic uncertainty. Despite the extensive literature on banking stability, the combined influence of military risks, macrofinancial shocks, and regulatory convergence with the European Union remains insufficiently explored. The study is based on official statistical data of the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF, and international financial institutions for the period 2015–2024. The methodological framework includes methods of analysis and synthesis, comparative analysis of regulatory convergence, construction of an integral financial stability index, and multifactor regression modelling to assess the impact of internal and external determinants of banking stability. The results indicate that key internal determinants include capitalization (CAR), liquidity indicators (LCR, NSFR), profitability (ROA, ROE), and credit risk (NPL ratio). External factors such as GDP dynamics (5.3% growth in 2023), inflation (12.9%), exchange rate volatility, and geopolitical risks significantly influence the stability index. Regression estimates confirm the statistically significant impact of both banking and macrofinancial indicators. The study contributes to methodological approaches for assessing banking system stability under wartime conditions by integrating macrofinancial and institutional determinants into a unified framework. The results may support regulators in improving macroprudential policy, developing stress-testing scenarios, and adapting Ukrainian banking regulation to EU standards.

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