THREATS AND PROSPECTS OF BUSINESS ACTIVITY IN UKRAINE DURING THE WAR AND POST-WAR PERIOD

Анотація

Entrepreneurship is the basis of a functioning market economy, and it carries the necessary prerequisites for qualitative changes in the economic relations system and business entities' activities. The economic efficiency of the state and the prospects for its development largely depend on the efficiency of business activity. Under these conditions, the war in Ukraine was a significant destructive factor in the development of entrepreneurship, which determined the study's relevance. The study aims to determine the threats and prospects for the recovery of entrepreneurial activity in Ukraine during the war and post-war period. The research is based on a survey conducted in August 2022 with the participation of top management managers of 1,284 Ukrainian enterprises. The study aimed to quantitatively assess threats and prospects for developing entrepreneurship in Ukraine. With the cluster analysis method, the peculiarities of entrepreneurship development in war conditions depend on geographical and branch affiliation. Based on the Granger causality test, the graphs method, and MICMAC analysis, the threats and prospects of entrepreneurial activity in Ukraine are structured according to their dependence and influence criteria and determined that the fundamental threats to the development of entrepreneurship generated by others are the decrease in demand for products, the threat of physical destruction, the unpredictability of the economic situation, the lack of state support, the reduction in the solvency of consumers, unpredictable actions of the state, the outflow of qualified personnel. The perspective of the development of entrepreneurship is related to European integration, which promotes access to new sales markets, the expansion of international partnership relations, the development of human capital due to the development of entrepreneurial abilities of owners and managers, flexibility, and criticality of their thinking. The structuring of threats made it possible to determine the priority, preventive and reactive responses which will minimize their negative impact on business activity and the use of prospects – to get out of the crisis and ensure sustainable development in the future.

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