Prospects for attracting private foreign investment for the economic recovery of Ukraine in the post-war period

Анотація

Introduction. In the post-war economy of Ukraine, private foreign capital is expected to transform external support into long-term renewal of the productive base, export capacity and technological structure of the economy. The scale of recovery needs is such that budgetary and donor resources cannot sustainably cover the entire volume of future investment demand. Under such conditions, the key policy challenge is to create an environment in which private foreign investors face calculable risk, predictable rules and a clear mechanism for entering recovery projects. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to identify the real prospects for attracting private foreign investment for the economic recovery of Ukraine in the post-war period, to assess the main barriers and risks for such capital, and to substantiate strategic policy vectors for increasing investment inflows. Method (methodology). The methodological framework combines structural and logical analysis, descriptive statistics, an institutional approach and problem-oriented interpretation. The empirical base relies on materials from UNCTAD, the World Bank, IFC, the European Commission, the National Bank of Ukraine, the European Business Association, the EBRD, DFC and MIGA. The paper focuses on Ukraine, its investment dynamics in 2021-2024, its risk profile, business survey evidence and the existing instruments for investment de-risking. All statistical evidence used in the article covers the period up to and including 2024. Results. The paper substantiates that in the Ukrainian case private foreign investment can become not a supplementary but a system-forming source of post-war modernisation, but only if a multilayer de-risking architecture is created. Ukraine's investment trajectory in 2021-2024 was highly asymmetric: after the collapse of 2022, inward FDI partially recovered in 2023-2024, yet the announced value of greenfield projects remained low, indicating a narrow pipeline of new investment. The key barriers are identified as war-related insecurity, limited risk insurance, labour and energy constraints, currency and financial restrictions, institutional unpredictability and the shortage of bankable projects. It is argued that the most productive model for Ukraine is a combined one integrating war-risk insurance and guarantees, blended finance, accelerated rule-of-law reforms linked to EU accession, sectoral prioritisation, project pipeline preparation and systematic aftercare for investors already present in the country.

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