Comprehensive Forecasting of Interconnected Socio- Economic Indicators as a Methodological Basis for Adopting Optimal Management

Анотація

The article presents the theoretical achievements of technical cybernetics, in particular the principle of balancing variables. The essence of which in the final conclusion on the suitability of certain forecasts is determined by the degree of performance for the predicted values of interrelated variables of the balance ratio, fair to them in the prehistoric period. The principle of balance of variables and the criterion based on it plays the role of an external complement that carries new information about the studied process and can be used as a priority in comparison with the methods of choosing mathematical forms of trends of varying complexity. First of all, this applies to the criterion of maximizing the coefficient of determination, which is usually used in the selection of the best reference functions that approximate the isolated time series. It is proposed to use this principle and the criterion of balance of variables based on it when forecasting socio-economic indicators, between which there are additive and multiplicative links. The application of the criterion of balance of variables in determining the forecast of the trend of forecasting the number of births, deaths and natural population growth in Ukraine for 2020-2021 is illustrated. Despite the small sample, balanced results were obtained for short-term forecasting of Ukraine's demographic indicators. They can serve as a reliable methodological basis for planning measures to improve the demographic situation in the country, as well as for making optimal management decisions on the use of human resources in the economy.

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