APPLICATION OF THE ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO FORECASTING THE KEY INDICATORS IN RENTAL OPERATIONS

Анотація

Introduction. Lease is considered one of the alternative forms of financing and a means of providing production and economic activities with the necessary assets. Leasing operations are relevant and cost-effective for small and medium-sized businesses, which do not always have enough resources to buy their own premises, equipment, etc. Leases have many characteristics and can be described using quantitative research methods. Methods. The practical application of scientific methods in our study is as follows: dialectical - to determine general approaches to research; monographic - in relation to the in-depth study of certain social phenomena; scientific knowledge - to determine a certain "perspective" of research as an assumption about the most relevant to the study of the selected problem characteristics of the object; abstract-logical - in order to return from the formulated scientific abstractions again to the study of the concrete and the formulation of the necessary conditions for its further existence and development in a logical sequence; scientific generalization - regarding the generalization of scientific facts and results based on the study, as well as methods of statistical processing of information, using methods of obtaining such quantities and qualitative characteristics, which are not directly in the economic information of the enterprise under study. Results. The article analyzes the influence of various factors on the amount of rent using correlation and regression analysis. The structure of leasing agreements and lease transactions in Ukraine by the volume of sold services is analyzed. Leasing operations in Ukraine by the volume of realized services in terms of real estate lease and the amount of rent in the studied lease agreements are considered. A linear model based on a spatial series of data is built, and its quality is checked. The initial model was modified taking into account the information about the statistical insignificance of individual variables. The forecast of the rent indicator is made taking into account the set factor indicators. Discussion. A promising area of further research is to improve the model by analyzing additional array of information (search for additional significant factors), as well as the use of econometric tools to analyze time series data in terms of lease and use them for short-term forecasting. Keywords: lease (rent), leasing, rental, correlation and regression analysis, model, forecasting.

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