Demographic Security and Sustainable Development of Ukraine in the Conditions of Active Migration of the Population

Анотація

The impact of migratory processes on the demographic security of Ukraine is studied, in particular in the context of a full-scale war by russia and large-scale internal and external migrations. To achieve the set goal, statistical, economic, mathematical methods were used, in particular correlative and regressive analysis to assess the impact of migratory factors on demographic indicators; comparative methods to analyze migratory processes in Ukraine and countries where Ukrainians seek refuge. The article focuses on the falling birth rate, high mortality among military and civilians, a significant decrease in the number of young people and working-age people who leave abroad in search of better economic conditions. One of the key problems is the low birth rate, which is further worsened by the emigration of women of fertile age. The relationship between socio-economic factors, such as unemployment, wage rates and migratory processes is analyzed. Growing emigration leads to a "demographic hole", which threatens not only economic stability, but also the social structure of the country. The example of Poland, the Czech Republic, Georgia and other countries where Ukrainians leave shows how a change in demographic composition can affect economic processes. A model of the impact of migratory processes on the demographic development of Ukraine is proposed. The population of Ukraine may decrease to 25 million people by 2051 if effective measures are not taken to prevent migratory flows. The problems of demographic security require urgent and effective strategic measures to preserve human capital and ensure the sustainable development of the country.

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