Political Correlations between the Dynamics of Migration Processes and Electoral Architecture as Consequences of the War Factor in Ukraine

Анотація

This article explores the impact of both internal and external migration of Ukrainian citizens, triggered by Russian military aggression after 2014, on the transformation of voters’ electoral behavior, particularly in the context of the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections in Ukraine. The focus is on how large-scale population displacement, both within the country and abroad, has altered the socio-political structure of the electorate. The study examines the dynamics and territorial distribution of internal migration, as well as the transformation of Ukraine’s demographic landscape, which has directly affected the regional dimension of electoral outcomes. Special attention is given to the analysis of discursive electoral practices, the specifics of internally displaced persons’ (IDPs) participation in elections, and the institutional and legal mechanisms governing their electoral inclusion. The article provides a detailed analysis of how migration processes have influenced political preferences, changes in the level of political mobilization, voter turnout, and the final voting results in certain regions. It also addresses the integration of IDPs into new communities, the degree of their socio-political adaptation, and their involvement in local political processes. Particular attention is paid to identifying the potential challenges and risks associated with organizing future elections amid ongoing migratory turbulence, as well as outlining possible scenarios for the development of electoral trends in the medium and long term. The study concludes that internal displacement amid armed conflict has acquired not only a social but also a pronounced political character, fundamentally reshaping the spatial structure of the electorate and complicating traditional voting patterns. The article emphasizes that IDPs are gradually forming a new electoral segment whose political behavior is becoming an increasingly significant factor influencing the course and outcomes of electoral processes in Ukraine. This is especially relevant for large cities, regional centers, and areas with high levels of internal migration, thereby necessitating a revision and adaptation of state policy in the fields of electoral legislation, migration management, and the protection of the political rights of displaced persons.

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