Transformation of Ukraine’s foreign trade under geopolitical challenges

Анотація

The purpose of the study is to analyse the trends and structure of Ukraine’s foreign trade under global economic and geopolitical challenges during 2014–2024. The method of statistical analysis of time series, a comparative method for Ukraine’s foreign trade flows, and a systemic analysis of changes in world trade were applied.The results of the study identified three stages of the transformation of Ukraine’s foreign trade: the first (2014–2016) is characterized by a sharp reduction in foreign trade operations due to the annexation of Crimea and the beginning of hostilities in Donbas; the second (2017–2021) demonstrated a gradual recovery and growth in foreign trade volumes; the third (2022–2024) witnessed a rapid decline and the beginning of the recovery of exports in conditions of a full-scale war. Changes in the commodity structure of exports were identified as an increase in the share of plant products to 32.4% in 2024, a reduction in metallurgical products by almost threefold, an increase in the share of IT services and intellectual property items to 12%. A chronic deficit in the trade balance was revealed, and a radical reorientation of export flows from the markets of the Commonwealth of Independent States countries to the markets of the European Union was recorded in the geographical structure.The research materials can be used to develop Ukraine’s foreign trade strategy during the war and postwar recovery, to form a state policy to support exports, to determine priority areas for diversifying trade flows and developing export-oriented sectors of the economy.The results of the study suggest a structural modification of Ukraine’s export potential through the development of sectors with high added value, diversification of the geographical structure of foreign trade with an emphasis on the markets of Asia, the Middle East and Africa, reorientation of the metallurgical industry to the production of products with a higher degree of processing, as well as further support for the IT industry and the export of digital services as a strategic direction for ensuring a positive foreign trade balance of Ukraine.

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