Estimation of Input Financial and Economic Parameters of an Investment Project Based on a Fuzzy Set Approach

Анотація

The article considers the problem of estimating input financial and economic parameters of investment projects in the form of fuzzy quantities (numbers). The results of the study give grounds to state that the modern fuzzy set methodology comprises a sufficiently developed arsenal of methods for constructing the membership functions of fuzzy sets, some of which can be used for carrying out economic analysis and evaluating real investment. At the same time, the issue of estimating input financial and economic parameters of investment projects has its own peculiarities, thus when addressing it, the turning to general approaches should be complemented with elaborating and developing special methods. Such special methods, in particular, are the method based on quasi-statistics and the method of reference points. The paper proposes an approach to finding fuzzy estimates of the input financial and economic parameters of real investments, which, in accordance with its logic, was called the method of reference intervals. The constructive principle of this method is to represent a sought-for fuzzy estimate using the interval approximations of its core and carrier. The specified interval approximations, which are interpreted as reference intervals, are determined on the basis of the principles of the theory of rough sets. A promising direction of further scientific research on the issues touched upon in the publication is the development of a methodological apparatus for considering the combined uncertainty in the structure of input data when modeling economic efficiency of real investment.

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