The impact of migration flows on the economically active population of Ukraine

Анотація

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of external migration processes on the dynamics of the economically active population of Ukraine. Using official statistical data and forecast values obtained through ARIMA modeling, the study examines trends in changes in the size of the economically active population, the specifics of migration balance formation, and the intensity of academic migration among Ukrainian students. The conducted correlation analysis made it possible to identify statistically significant relationships between key indicators, indicating the multidimensional nature of migration’s impact on the country’s economically active population. The research findings demonstrate that a persistent negative migration balance contributes to a gradual decline in the economically active population, while the growth of educational migration increases the risk of losing future highly qualified human capital. The obtained results constitute a valuable analytical basis for shaping state policy in the fields of migration regulation, employment, human capital development, and strategic planning in the context of Ukraine’s post-war economic recovery.

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