LOGICAL-LINGUISTIC MODEL OF ASSESSMENT AND SELECTION OF ENTERPRISE STRATEGIES

Анотація

The paper proposes a model for the assessment and selection of alternative business strategies using logic-linguistic tools and fuzzy logic based on the modification of a classical quantitative strategic planning matrix (QSPM). The author analyzes existing modern systems of criteria for assessing strategic alternatives. The hierarchy of a certain problem is constructed, which provides for the identification of assessment criteria and their decomposition on subcriteria. This study uses a system of QSPM assessment criteria, which is improved by taking into account the potential capacity of strategic alternatives to achieving defined strategic goals. Assessment of strategic alternatives at the first level (by defined subcriteria of each criterion) is carried out by expertly using a seven-level term multiplicity with triangular fuzzy numbers and triangular functions of affiliation. The aggregation of expert assessments is carried out using a Mamdani fuzzy inference system (MFIS) based on the developed logical rules and fuzzy knowledge bases. In the second level, integral assessments of strategic alternatives are also using MFIS with a corresponding logical rule system and knowledge bases. For defuzzification of the obtained fuzzy values, the CoA method (Center of Area) is used. In the case of a significant difference in expert estimates, it is envisaged to use the procedure for their agreement with the Fuzzy Delphi method. For the implementation of the model in the Matlab (Fuzzy Logic Toolbox Package), a framework was built, which contains a block of introducing expert linguistic information, a fuzzy rule base for each of the defined criteria and aggregation of estimates for all criteria, a block of results. This framework allows you to fully implement procedural moments of the proposed approach, providing an opportunity to implement simulation depending on the input expert data. The developed model can be used to facilitate the list of the most “attractive” (priority) enterprise strategies as a basic or complementary to existing techniques and may be the basis for creating a system for supporting strategic decisions.

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