Socio-economic determinants of student enrollment in higher education institutions of Ukraine

Анотація

The study examines the impact of socio-economic, demographic, and institutional factors on student enrollment in higher education institutions of Ukraine under conditions of long-term structural changes and external shocks. The purpose of the research is to develop and empirically test a dynamic multi-factor econometric model with lagged variables that accounts for the inertia of demographic processes and the delayed effects of investment and macroeconomic factors on the formation of student enrollment. The empirical basis consists of annual statistical data for the period 1996-2024. To estimate the relationships, regression analysis with time lags is applied, along with comparisons to alternative specifications (linear regression without lags, Lasso, Ridge, Elastic Net, and principal component regression). Model quality is assessed using R², MSE, RMSE, and MAE indicators, and classical regression assumptions are tested. The results indicate that institutional accessibility of higher education, measured by the number of institutions per 1,000 population, represents the most significant positive determinant of student enrollment. A delayed positive effect of capital investment in education is confirmed, while increasing household expenditures on housing and utility services demonstrate a negative impact. The lagged model ensures better temporal synchronization and higher economic interpretability compared to alternative approaches. The findings have long-term implications for evidence-based educational policy, strategic planning of higher education infrastructure, and scenario forecasting of student enrollment dynamics in the context of demographic and socio-economic transformations.

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