Improvement of bankruptcy probability model based on the analysis of industrial enterprises of Ukraine

Анотація

In present work, the peculiarities of simulation model of enterprises bankruptcy probability that exist in European, world and domestic practices were considered. The scientific econometric approach was applied to determine the overall presence and strength of the relation between the economic indicators of industrial enterprises. A financial analysis of large industrial manufactures in the region of Ukraine was conducted. To form the information base of the study, the authors estimated liquidity, solvency, business activity and profitability ratios that affect the financial condition of enterprises. They revealed the most significant ratios of financial condition analysis. According to the analysis of existing models of bankruptcy probability in the context of these industrial enterprises, an improved model for assessing the risk of bankruptcy was proposed and evaluated. The proposed model for estimating the probability of bankruptcy, taking into account the influence of the most significant ratios of financial analysis, confirmed that the percentage of provided bankruptcies and stable activities are acceptable and indicate high quality of the resulting equation. The IBM SPSS Statistics system was used to process the data, check the assumptions and prepare valid conclusions. The improved model will allow it to be used in the practice of diagnosing the probability of bankruptcy of industrial enterprises, which will help identify the threat of bankruptcy in time and ensure stable operation of the industrial enterprise.

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