REGIONAL DISPARITIES OF INTELLECTUAL POTENTIAL UNDER THE MIGRATION CRISIS: FROM SCENARIO ANALYSIS TO A ROADMAP OF THE CIRCULAR MODEL

Анотація

Contemporary migration processes caused by military actions, demographic losses, and labour market transformations significantly affect the preservation of Ukraine’s intellectual potential and intensify regional disparities in its development. This study is devoted to substantiating a regionally oriented approach to migration policy formation based on the analysis of regional intellectual potential and the modelling of migration trajectories of highly qualified personnel. A regional Intellectual Potential Index is proposed, integrating indicators of educational attainment, concentration of scientific and educational infrastructure, employment in knowledge-intensive sectors, and demographic resilience of regions. The assessment revealed substantial differences among Ukrainian regions in terms of human capital preservation and migration outflows, confirming the need for a differentiated approach to the implementation of state migration policy. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of migration trajectories of highly skilled professionals. Using a Sankey flow diagram, the main directions of movement of researchers, IT specialists, physicians, engineers, academics, and managers are visualised, and their possible final states are identified. Four key migration trajectories are distinguished: rapid re-emigration, circular migration, prolonged emigration, and irreversible assimilation. The findings demonstrate that circular migration is the most effective pathway for preserving intellectual potential, as it enables the maintenance of professional, economic, and scientific ties between migrants and their country of origin. Based on the obtained results, a four-phase roadmap for implementing a circular model of intellectual potential preservation in Ukraine until 2030 is developed, encompassing the stages of stabilisation, circulation, activation, and consolidation. The proposed model is grounded in the principles of the circular economy and envisages the stimulation of re-emigration, the development of diaspora engagement, the support of transnational professional networks, and the strengthening of regional capacities for recovery. The implementation of the proposed measures will contribute to reducing human capital losses, enhancing regional competitiveness, and creating favourable conditions for the sustainable socio-economic development of Ukraine

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