Fiscal Sustainability in Ukraine: Current State, Challenges and Forecast Scenarios

Анотація

The article explores the theoretical and applied aspects of ensuring fiscal sustainability in Ukraine under conditions of extreme macroeconomic shocks and martial law. The relevance of the topic is driven by the necessity to find new analytical models to maintain economic autonomy and the state's fiscal security amidst military actions and geopolitical instability. The aim of the work is to develop scientifically grounded approaches to assessing and forecasting fiscal sustainability indicators based on systemic analysis and debt dynamics modeling. The study utilizes a comprehensive approach that combines the analysis of budgetary, debt, social, and institutional components of the financial system. The main hypothesis is based on the premise that the digital transformation of the fiscal sector and international support are key factors in strengthening institutional capacity and stabilizing the debt burden in the medium term. The methodological framework of the study consists of methods of analysis and synthesis, economic-statistical grouping, and debt sustainability analysis (DSA) scenario modeling. As a result of the analysis, a rapid increase in the public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio to 90% in 2024 was established. Forecast scenarios have been formulated, indicating a risk of the debt burden rising to 90.6% by 2029, provided that a significant primary deficit persists. The positive impact of digitalization was identified: the number of e-services increased by 80%, and the IT budget of tax authorities grew by 108.3%, which strengthens the system's institutional capacity under conditions of macroeconomic uncertainty. The theoretical value of the work lies in expanding the fiscal sustainability paradigm by incorporating adaptability to unpredictable external shocks.

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