PATTERNS OF COMMODITY AND GEOGRAPHICAL REORIENTATION OF UKRAINE’S AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE EU TRADE REGIME REVIEW

Анотація

Agricultural exports remain a system-forming element of Ukraine’s economy, with the EU market holding its position as a key destination. The change in the trade regime in 2025 – the expiration of the Autonomous Trade Measures and the revision of the DCFTA – led to a decrease in agricultural exports to the EU by USD 2.1 billion. The key scientific problem is the insufficient understanding of the nature of these changes: whether they represent only a short-term adjustment or indicate a deeper commodity-geographical restructuring of the export model. The article aims to identify the patterns of this reorientation under the new conditions of access to the EU market. Based on the analysis of data from the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine and Eurostat, the hypothesis of an asymmetric reaction of key product groups (grains, oilseeds, sugar, poultry meat) to institutional changes is confirmed. The study shows that the observed shifts point to the emergence of a structurally heterogeneous adaptation pattern rather than a uniform short-term adjustment: from an increase in Ukraine’s share in EU imports of wheat (to 23%) and sunflower oil (to 92%) to its decrease for corn (to 42%) and rapeseed (to 23%). Based on this, a typology of product group reactions is developed, substantiating that long-term adaptation requires not only geographical diversification but also a change in the export model towards deeper processing. The obtained results hold practical value for formulating a differentiated export strategy for the state and agricultural businesses, one that considers the varying degrees of product groups’ dependence on the EU market and their potential for reorientation. The new configuration of the trade regime with the EU requires Ukraine to transition to a long-term model of agricultural export adaptation, which combines market diversification, structural modernization, processing development, and a gradual shift from raw material exports to products with higher added value. A promising direction for futher research is to asses the impact of the new configuration of the DCFTA on the processing segments of Ukraine’s agricultural exports in 2026–2027, as well as to analyze the extent to which the change in the trade regime will stimulate internal structural modernization of the agricultural sector.

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