Sectoral transformations and multiplier effects in the economy of Ukraine in the context of import substitution

Анотація

The article examines sectoral transformations in the Ukrainian economy during 1995–2022 through the dynamics of domestic output and gross value added (GVA) multipliers in the context of import substitution. The relevance of the study is determined by the need to strengthen national economic resilience, reduce dependence on imported intermediate inputs, and restore the capacity of domestic production linkages to generate value added within the country during wartime and reconstruction. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study is the input–output approach, the concept of structural transformation, and the analysis of intersectoral linkages. The empirical calculations are based on harmonized national input–output tables from the OECD, which make it possible to compare changes in domestic production effects and GVA effects across economic activities over a long period. The study shows that the average domestic output multiplier increased from 1.824 in 1995 to 1.918 in 2022, while the GVA multiplier decreased from 0.740 to 0.601. This divergence indicates that the growth of domestic output was accompanied by a weakening of the economy’s capacity to retain value added within national production chains. The sectoral analysis reveals that services and basic life-support activities, including education, public administration, water supply, and energy supply, demonstrated a relatively high ability to generate domestic GVA because of their lower dependence on imported material inputs. Meanwhile, manufacturing industries remained important for the formation of output effects and for the potential implementation of selective import substitution policies. Particular attention is paid to sectors in which the GVA multiplier remained low or decreased significantly, including chemicals, petroleum refining, rubber and plastic products, and metallurgy. The results show that import substitution should not be interpreted as the preservation of existing production structures or a simple restriction of imports. Rather, it should be understood as a policy of technological upgrading, localization of intermediate production, deeper processing of raw materials, and stronger interaction between industry, engineering, science, and professional services. The findings may be used to substantiate sectoral priorities during Ukraine’s post-war recovery, reconstruction policy, structural resilience, economic security, long-term economic growth and the expansion of domestic value added in Ukraine.

Класифікація

Ідентифікатори

Схожі роботи