Assessment of the impact of the socio-economic potential of agglomerations on the development of the Carpathian region of Ukraine

Анотація

The article calculates the main indicators of the socio-economic potential of the agglomerations of Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernivtsi, and Zakarpattia regions as the sum of the respective statistical indicators of the territorial communities that form these agglomerations. Using panel regression based on data for the period 2019–2021, an assessment was conducted of the impact of the socio-economic potential indicators of the agglomerations on the economic growth of the Carpathian region. he research results revealed a strong dependence of the GRP indicators of Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernivtsi, and Zakarpattia regions on changes in the number of enterprises, the financial result of enterprises before taxation, and the share of profit-making enterprises in the total number of enterprises, which can be considered the main factors influencing the agglomerations’ impact on the region’s economic development in the short term. The impact of the dynamics of the number of enterprises and the financial result of enterprises before taxation on GRP was direct: a 1% increase in each of these independent variables during the study period contributed to an increase in the dependent variable by 0.96% and 0.145%, respectively. The relationship between GRP and the share of profit-making enterprises in the total number of enterprises was inverse: a 1% increase in the independent variable led to a 1.047% decrease in the dependent variable. The decline in the share of profit-making enterprises in the total number of agglomeration enterprises observed during 2019–2021 had a positive effect on the regions’ GRP. This inverse relationship is explained by the increase in the shadow component of business, as a result of which enterprises invest the profits received in the development of production and increase the volume of products produced, but at the same time declare unprofitability and do not pay taxes in the proper amount. A study of the dependence of the economic growth of the Lviv region on the socio-economic potential of the Lviv agglomeration for 2012-2021, conducted using linear multiple regression, showed that in the long term, the key factors of the region’s economic development were the following indicators: volumes of products sold, the number of employees at enterprises, and personnel costs of enterprises. According to the first model, a direct dependence of the GRP of the Lviv region on changes in volumes of products sold and an inverse dependence on changes in the number of employees at enterprises were revealed. The second regression model confirmed the inverse dependence of the GRP of the Lviv region on the number of employees at enterprises and a direct relationship between GRP and the volume of personnel costs of enterprises. It was concluded that local authorities should take into account the research results when justifying the priority directions of development strategies for territorial communities that form the urban agglomerations of the Carpathian region, in order to accelerate economic growth based on the effective use of agglomerations’ socio-economic potential.

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